Last month I wrote about the Arizona Autism Insurance Bill (Steven's Law) passing the Senate's Health & Appropriations Committee by unanimous vote. Last week the bill passed the House, and this week the Senate followed suit. All that remains is for the governor to sign the bill into law, and we will have insurance coverage for everyone on the autism spectrum – cue the trumpets and the ticker-tape parade to start the party. Well, maybe it's not quite that easy...

Since this looks like it's destined to become a reality, I wanted to talk about some of the positive effects we'll see from Steven's Law, as well as some possible unintended consequences. These thoughts aren't in any particular order – more of a stream of consciousness writing.

Full disclosure: I'm a free-market capitalist, with an undergrad degree in finance and a master's degree in business administration. I left a job with a Fortune 500 company to go into business for myself, where my family's well being depends 100% on my ability to provide recognized value in an industry where many are seen as commodities (one no different from another.) The point is I don't generally agree with government regulation of private business, unless not doing so would cause the public great harm.

Who's covered? People who work for companies with more than 50 employees. Unfortunately Arizona has a very high rate of self employed and small businesses; these people will not be covered.

How many people will be affected? I don't know... How many people in Arizona with children on the autism spectrum work for larger companies? It has to be a fairly significant number, otherwise the law would be virtually useless. But how many actually – 2,500 families? 10,000? 25,000? The larger the number, the more effect it will have on some of my other points.

Earlier diagnoses. We all know how important early diagnosis is, and this law will help facilitate earlier diagnosis and intervention for many families.

Long-term decrease in the State's burden. More kids getting more treatment, and higher quality treatment, at earlier ages, should lead to higher-functioning adults, on average & in theory. Whether these adults are mainstreamed into the productive fabric of society or they still need help with daily living skills (and everywhere in between), a higher functioning population will require less state-provided care over the 60+ years of our kids' adult lives.

Increased Insurance Rates for all. How many families did we say would be covered by insurance mandated through the new law – 2,500 or more? (pulled completely out of thin air – I don't have any supporting documentation.) If each family receives $25,000 per year in benefits, that means the insurance companies are going to pay out $62,500,000 per year! (2,500 families * $25,000 each). This isn't money they were able to plan for by running profitability studies or devising new programs; it's money the government simply mandated they pay out. They are going to seek to recapture some of this lost money, and the best way they have to do that is to have everybody share the pain – higher rates all the way around.

This actually becomes an indirect tax, as the State reduces their financial exposure via DDD by passing the burden to the insurance companies, who then pass the hat to all their policy holders. In effect, everyone with health insurance in Arizona is going to subsidize this program a little bit. It's not really any different from simply increasing the sales tax by a sliver of a percentage point.

Supply & Demand of Therapists. (follow me on this one.)

More people having access to therapy will increase the demand for therapy, which could cause a shortage of therapists, leaving some families without services at all.

The shortage in therapists will allow the providers to raise their rates; some of the increased revenues will be shared with the therapists in the form of higher wages. This will attract more, and higher quality, therapists to Arizona. Some will move from other states, while others will seek out this major in school.

If the inflow of new therapists happens too quickly, it could lead to an oversupply of therapists. This could lead to a class system, where the high-end providers charge the most money and have the highest quality therapists (and serve the wealthy and the large-company-insured families), while the lower quality therapists work at providers who accept DDD payment and serve the less fortunate and less-insured families.

Eventually the insurance companies and DDD will come together to create a price list of allowable charges, which they hope will even the playing field. Even then, however, there wouldn't be a great incentive for the good therapists to leave the high profile clinics to go work in the lower quality clinics. In this scenario, it would take a very long time to self-correct.

This is a quick list off the top of my head; I'm sure there are other costs and benefits we haven't yet touched on. I'll update this list as I think of things worth sharing, and I' love to hear your thoughts as well - feel free to comment below...